Frustrations

Funny how we get so caught up in our expectations, towards ourselves, others, the world, life.

We erect them as standards to be met, promises to be fulfilled, goals to be achieved.

On what basis? On previously agreed standards, normal/regular/expected course of action?

“Expected”.

Again, we project on the future, what it should hold as a customer who would have paid for a product online and thinking (rightfully?) that the goods paid for, will arrive when it is supposed to, with the quality and colour portrayed on the website. But life has no customers! It gives no promises!

Frustrations in such a world become a waste of time. 24 hours in a day, 365 days (or so) in a year. Not one more minute. And yet we so often take our time for granted while on the other hand expecting so much from it.

Most of us are born and grow up within an ecosystem where rules, standards and the interpretation of reality offer predictability and indications on what to expect. Waking up in the morning, most of us do not realize how much expectation we project on the day, the week, the year ahead. Though we are conscious that many things are out of our control, we have a relatively low tolerance to discrepancies from the path we expect things to follow. 

Through the decision analysis theory, researchers from various fields have attempted to codify and formally attest what are the features of decision-making, including the uncertainties, beliefs and emotions involved. Defined in simple terms, decision analysis refers to procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision; for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected-utility axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision. In this regard, the analysis aims at enhancing predictability of the million decisions that we make every day, which then serves as a basis for decision-makers to strengthen their own decisions about people. In simple terms, by understanding why you make a certain decision, decision-makers (the Government, those that design development projects, or others) make better planning for your future.

Predictability has become an important asset in our societies. Planning, projections, where or not to invest, and our day-to-day operations call for as much predictability to enable us to take the most appropriate decisions about tomorrow, based on the experiences from yesterday and what we know of today. Equally important is the capacity to expect and accept the unexpected. Plan from the uncertainty and move within the chaos. Some have coined the term resilience or emotional cushioning in defining one’s capacity to better react and respond to negative outcomes.

Indeed, for many, predictability is an illusive luxury, shattered before it is ever established. The 21st century, its armed conflicts, its natural disasters, and more recently its health pandemic, has shattered the very basis of decision-making as we know it. Today, predictability is appearing to us so familiar and yet so further and further from our reach. For the least advantaged, the thousands of families living most of their lives fleeing conflicts - in refugee settings, internally displaced camps, or forced to live on the road to a hypothetical place they shall call home – intentional decision-making is based on different basis and appears less important than the capacity to respond to situations as they arise.

Resilience, as such, is less an innovative concept developed in the 21st century, but rather the passive weapon against a life that sometimes relentlessly imposes its torment. Where predictability is a shield, resilience is a response, one that is often the only one available to many women, men, young and old. One that is either screamed or murmured. 

The concept of resilience does not address the nature of external shocks, but rather makes strength to address these, a default state. More recently, the likes of Nassim N. Taleb went further and explored the concept of “anti-fragile”, defined as the opposite of fragile, going beyond resilience and rather extracting its strength from negative external stimuli. This can be seen as an effort for mankind to acknowledge the weakness of decision-making schemes that are solely tied to predictability and embracing the real nature of the environment we live in. 

More than ever, we are all called to embrace disruptions, ever-changing ecosystems, and the incapacity to accurately predict what tomorrow will hold. Of course, predictability remains essential for most of our activities, just like the need to have a defined flight schedule for any serious airplane. But even in that case, as I was told, some pilots are eager to be ahead of the set flight schedule, going beyond the expected, for the benefit of travelers arriving early on their domestic flights.

More than ever, it is important that, as a collective or individuals, we apply the same paradigm change, foster our ability to plan in chaos and build the resilience that equips us for anything that is on the menu of life, any given day.

As thinkers spend most of their time planning for the best possible scenarios in our society, let us channel our inner doers, working relentlessly, falling hundred times and yet still standing, ready for the next disruption, the next frustration. Thus, I believe, we can claim our transition to tomorrow.